One of the key matters clients have been asking since the General Election results from Scotland filtered in, is what the impact of this will have on the May 2026 Scottish Parliamentary elections, and if it is inevitable that Anas Sarwar will be marching into Bute House. So, a few reflections.
No bones about it, the SNP had a catastrophic night, collapsing from the 48 MPs secured in 2019 to just 9 MPs, while Labour increased from its one MP north of the border to 37. Scotland’s Central Belt was turned from yellow to red, as seat after seat toppled to the “Starmer tsunami”.
However, despite Labour achieving more than four times the number of seats, this was on a meagre 5.3 per cent more of the vote when compared with the SNP – 35.3 percent for Labour versus 30.0 per cent for the SNP. Such are the vagaries of our first-past-the-post voting system. There will now be a period of reflection for the SNP, with First Minister John Swinney indeed highlighting the need to “take stock”, with this including the issue of independence.
His clear challenge is how to balance an activist base hungry to promote the independence message, with a public who in a cost-of-living crisis do not currently see the constitutional question as a key priority, or indeed thorny issues such as gender identity. I suspect a period of recriminations and a measure of infighting, making for an interesting SNP annual conference in Autumn.
Elections to Holyrood are also just under two years away, giving the SNP time to get its act together, at a time when the sheen will undoubtedly be coming off Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership.
There will be a refocusing on economic growth and improving public services, seen by most of the Scottish populace as underperforming. In fairness, as Mr Swinney had already begun this process before the election was called.
This was also, it must be remembered, very much an election in which voting for Labour was positioned as the conduit to get rid of a Tory Government, a cry of anguish. Labour’s UK vote share ultimately increased by less than two per cent on 2019, with its victory very much in the face of a Tory collapse, which saw its vote share almost half. This will no longer be the case in 2026, with Labour now holding the keys of power.
Given the tight public finances, and the maintenance of Conservative fiscal framework for Labour, the “change” promised is unlikely to materialize to a level desired by the public, leading to potential disillusionment. This may well play into SNP hands, as will potential divisions between the Labour Party north and south of the border.
We have a sophisticated electorate, who can differentiate between elections to different legislatures. It has shown that it is volatile, and is happy to switch and switch again, which may mean the swing to Labour may not be a longer-term trend. And for those independence supporters, the SNP is the only credible party seen as able to deliver this.
So, while the SNP may be down, it is by no means out.